Transition Finance Weekly - 5/29/2025
Texans Go to War on Clean Energy; Ohio Grapples with the Energy Crunch
SPOTLIGHT: Texas is the front line of the GOP’s energy civil war
The “red-on-red” battles aren’t just happening in Congress; they’re in the states, too. Cheap renewable energy is booming in Texas, and that’s good for most businesses and investors — the conventional GOP base — but the culture-war obsessives in the Texas GOP, with funding from right-wing billionaires, want to kill it.
H.B. 3356, a bill that one GOP aide called “one of the worst energy bills I’ve ever seen,” along with others, could make it impossible for many renewables companies to legally operate there, by requiring solar and wind providers to be able to provide electricity 24/7. And this is happening at a moment when gas turbine manufacturing is backlogged around the world, meaning new gas plants won’t come online for at least five years.
The motivation behind this and several additional extreme Senate proposals is clearly to protect fossil fuels, but their harms go too far for many Texas Republicans who don’t want to see the burgeoning renewables sector damaged — or lose the jobs, tax revenue, and cheap energy that it brings.
Former Texas Rep. John Davis, known as the “Energy Rancher,” whose land in the Hill Country is home to seven windmills: “Wind turbines, I don’t have to mark them or castrate them or give them shots or medicine,” Davis said. “I used to cuss at the wind. Now I say, ‘turn baby turn.’”
1. The Congressional Budget Fight Moves to the Senate, Clean Energy on the Line
The bill as it stands would spike the cost of living, raise taxes, and kill jobs.
The stakes couldn’t be higher; along with all the other damage it will do, the budget plan the House passed aims to gut key IRA provisions, stripping away clean energy tax credits and incentives that would have everyday Americans paying higher energy costs, while also making it harder for households to make clean energy upgrades that save money and cut emissions.
Here’s a recap of what’s projected to happen if we lose IRA tax credits:
National debt: up $3.3 trillion
Wholesale electricity costs: up 50% by 2035
Jobs: 830,000 lost in 2030 and nearly 720,000 in 2035
Consumer energy costs: up more than $16 billion in 2030 and more than $33 billion by 2035
Gutting the IRA won’t help Americans. Putting the brakes on renewable energy doesn’t even make sense (see above). The only thing it will do is push the very achievable dream of cleaner, healthier, more cost-effective communities further into the future.
Nick Arnold of Tucson, who used IRA incentives to electrify his home after flood damage: “The Inflation Reduction Act is a very tangible, significant lifeline to Americans who just want a stable planet, a healthy community, and an affordable life.”
2. FTC Throws Weight Behind Anti-ESG Crusade
Forcing the financial industry to lose money on coal is an insane policy choice.
The executive branch has opened a new front in its war against climate, with the FTC filing a new statement of interest against Blackrock, Vanguard, and State Street in the frivolous antitrust collusion case led by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The three firms are alleged to have conspired to promote net-zero initiatives at the expense of coal production. Nevermind that doing so is rational: coal was and is being outperformed by fossil gas and even more so by renewables. But the facts don’t really matter when Trumpist orthodoxy is on the line.
Frances Sawyer’s take: “This Texas anti-climate campaign, now emboldened by federal support, is like suing Netflix for outperforming Blockbuster — with investors and our economy paying the price.”
3. Tech Companies Drove Early Renewable Growth —But in the AI Race, Their 100% Clean Promises are Falling Far Short
Hungry AI data centers have Big Tech backpedaling on their renewables commitments.
Major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon once built their brands on clean energy commitments and climate-friendly investments, supercharging state renewable energy markets and policy. When Meta committed to powering its Georgia datacenter with 100% solar energy in 2018, it spurred corporate solar investment that helped lift Georgia to 7th in the nation in total installed solar capacity.
But now, as their AI power demands spike, those same companies are reneging on their clean energy commitments and bringing more fossil fuels online. Energy demand is growing faster than supply, and the companies — and the utilities that supply them — are calling for new gas-powered turbines and longer lifespans for dirty coal plants.
Tech companies are leaving a number of key tools in their toolboxes, like smart investments in energy efficiency and thoughtful energy resource planning, instead opting to overpay for outdated, dirty fuels. Even worse: some experts warn that both utilities and tech companies are vastly overestimating energy demand growth over the next few decades, potentially shoving billions towards dirty fuels that won’t be necessary.
Alex Hanna, director of research at the Distributed AI Research Institute and author of “The AI Con”: “[Tech companies have] gone from promising to be carbon neutral to really just blowing their goals out of the water. And this is uniquely due to AI and generative AI in particular.”
4. In Ohio, Climate Change Brings New Weather Patterns — And Higher Costs
As the energy system sees increasing strain, the state government tries to respond.
Ohio is seeing climate change reach people’s front doors (literally), with flooding and severe storms wreaking havoc on communities where such events were once rare. New energy legislation could help the state transition to clean energy at a critical juncture in the climate crisis.
Ohio just enacted House Bill 15, a sweeping energy overhaul that streamlines permitting and fast-tracks solar development on brownfields, while ending the highly-problematic OVEC coal bailout fund born from the HB 6 corruption scandal. While imperfect, these positive developments will boost clean energy, and bring community benefits, in a state where coal has long dominated the energy market.
Nolan Rutschilling, Ohio Environmental Council (OEC) Action Fund’s Managing Director of Energy Policy: “Today, we earned a significant victory for clean air, utility accountability, and Ohioans concerned with rising electric bills. This legislation is imperfect, but it is an energy policy win for everyday Ohioans, not Fortune 500 utility companies and their CEOs.”
5. The Regulatory Assault Shifts to the States
The far right is bringing “judicial deference” to your backyard.
It wasn’t enough for right-wing activists to throw federal agencies into chaos after 2024’s Supreme Court ruling in Loper Bright. The battle to eliminate regulation is now moving to statehouses, as lawmakers and the right-wing extremists who fund them push a “judicial deference” campaign at the state level to make it easier for corporations to challenge and dismantle state regulatory efforts. Everything from workplace safety to pollution controls to climate policy regulations at risk.
We’ve seen this playbook before, even before Loper Bright. Groups like ALEC have long used model legislation to push anti-ESG laws — which we have tracked extensively for three years — giving fossil fuels preferential treatment. Now, the same bad actors have broadened their assault on democracy, economics, and public health. Those state legislators who haven’t been captured by corporate interests and right-wing culture warriors need to stand strong and protect their communities, environment, and economies.
Devon Ombres, senior director for courts and legal policy at the Center for American Progress: “This is giving massive handouts to corporate interests who don’t want to be regulated and who are maximizing profit over the well-being of the community that they’re in.”